Note: This piece is solely an observation and opinion of my own. It could be completely wrong and I look forward to tracking my assumption over the course of my career.
I have heard some talks about how access to information could be impacting the markets and the speed at which market cycles take place.
Think about it for a second. Everyone is now connected. Information is bombarding you on a daily basis. You literally cannot escape it.
You scroll Twitter/X and are force-fed different opinions, takes, and news. The same goes for TikTok, Instagram, and Facebook.
And for those who are not inclined to use social media, your phone is buzzing constantly. News notifications are flowing in nonstop. Even when you wake up, there are a slew of new stories that hit your notification center overnight.
Robinhood has over 25,000,000 funded accounts, they send out price alerts whenever the market gets shaky. They want you to feel like you need to do something.
Now throw in the whole tariff situation, which appears to be announced via social media to some extent.
The market is moving on a whim based on whichever new tariff gets announced. Then it is roaring back on word of potential compromises.
The information age has people pricing, repricing, and re-repricing again on an hourly basis.
The tariffs are moving at light speed and the markets are moving quicker. This is an indication of a healthy and efficient market. There is liquidity for people looking to exit positions and money market funds reached a new all-time high.
Anyway, to the point I wanted to make:
I would not be surprised if market cycles began to move more quickly. Faster drawdowns, faster recoveries, faster new all-time highs. This all revolves around the idea that information travels so quickly now.
We have kind of seen this play out already… COVID and the V-shaped recovery era, even 2022 was not that extended of a bear market coming in just shy of the average bear market duration.
Just 42 days ago, the S&P 500 was at a RECORD HIGH!!! Now sentiment is in the dumps, and we’ve experienced one of the quickest corrections in history.
Humans are emotional. Throw some kerosene on that fire by force-feeding us constant news, no-commissions trading, and the ability to place orders on our phones? Things are going to move and they’re going to move quickly.
If you told me that the general boom-bust economic cycles we follow would accelerate, I’d fully agree.
Again, all of this is just an opinion. I could be dead wrong, and I am fine with that. What’s a newsletter for if not to share an opinion I’ve dwelled on for a few months now?